I got the game Saturday night and finished it by Sunday night with sporadic playing. It was very repetetive and boring. Though the story line was good, I'd much rather have a boring story and good game play.
Multiplayer seems like more of an afterthought than a game feature. UT blows Halo away and how old is it? I won't even mention Tribes II and Halo in the same sentence. (ooops, I just did. Sorry Sierra)
Well, at least I got a cool $40 Halo coaster to set my drink on while I play the free download America's Army.
I got the game Saturday night and finished it by Sunday night
with sporadic playing.
Yeah, I bought it Sunday night and finished it Tuesday.
It was very repetetive and boring.
Absolutely. Even the people who really like the game complain about that aspect. The only thing worse than a boring environment is one that's been cut-and-pasted 12 times to make the level longer. And the only thing worse than THAT is when the freaking game makes you go back and do those same maps again later! Sheesh... The game is short enough as it is, and if you took out all the redundancy, it would be about 1/5 its current length.
Though
the story line was good, I'd much rather have a boring story and
good game play.
I actually found the story pretty mundane. I won't go into details though, as it involves spoilers. Needless to say, the story was nothing that hasn't been done before in other games (and yes, I mean before Halo's initial release 2 years ago). Very disappointing from the folks that made TFL, which had a great story.
The vehicles were a huge disappointment to me. The controls for them are, without question, the worst driving controls of any game I've ever played. "Mash the forward button and the vehicle will quiver and ooze in the general direction you're looking." Perhaps it was done that way to work well on consoles, I don't know. But then again, there are plenty of driving games on the console, all with controls that make you feel like you're... you know... actually DRIVING. It's too bad no one at Bungie apparently ever played any driving games.
I've played a fair bit of Planetside, and it simply blows Halo away in terms of mixing FPS and vehicular combat. So much more fun. Oh yeah, you also get to fight battles with dozens of other people on each side. Sorry Halo, maybe 2 years ago, but not in 2003.
I enjoyed Half-life more than Halo in just about every way, and that came out 5 years ago... 3 years before the initial release of Halo. Better environments, more interesting enemies, and better gameplay.
I will concede that the physics engine in Halo is fantastic. It makes for some very satisfying battlefield antics. But in the end, that's all they are... antics and eye-candy. The game itself is a write-off for me.
Gilbert, the fact that the game was originally released for the XBox is, uh, irrelevant to the quality of the game. I'm sure we could find some god awful PSX titles if we had the time to look around.
Corak's sense of bewilderment comes from the fact that we were been playing another of Bungie's series, Myth, fairly regularly for, oh, 3 years from when TFL was released in late 1997. Are we going to go back to the fun fun days of "MY MAC PKWNZ UR PC BICH"? Quite frankly, who cares which platform the game was released on? It makes nilski difference how much fun the game is.
The multiplayer feature of halo is what makes halo the best game. I think the problem with you is you have no friends to come over and play the game with you, so the only thing you can do is play AA on the net. You know it's true, if you havn't played halo multiplayer and you own the game, that means you have no friends. Face the fact you loser!
yea... ur only saying that cuz u wish that ps2 was anywhere near as good as xbox... if u havent noticed more people buy xbox than ps2 and ur saying halo sux cuz it is never goin to be on ps2 tell me one thing that ps2 has that xbox doesnt...we j/ got ur best game gta what now beeotch... i couldn name a billiont hings xbox has that ps2 doesnt and u say ps3 is gonna be better than xbox of course it is but xbox 2 will be 50 times better than ps3
yea... ur only saying that cuz u wish that ps2 was anywhere near
as good as xbox... if u havent noticed more people buy xbox than
ps2 and ur saying halo sux cuz it is never goin to be on ps2
tell me one thing that ps2 has that xbox doesnt...we j/ got ur
best game gta what now beeotch... i couldn name a billiont hings
xbox has that ps2 doesnt and u say ps3 is gonna be better than
xbox of course it is but xbox 2 will be 50 times better than ps3
Bloody Hell...I think I felt my brain oozing out my ear after reading that one...
The multiplayer feature of halo is what makes halo the best
game. I think the problem with you is you have no friends to
come over and play the game with you, so the only thing you can
do is play AA on the net. You know it's true, if you havn't
played halo multiplayer and you own the game, that means you
have no friends. Face the fact you loser!
You know... after postings like this, I remember how blessed I am to be a MEMBER of Clan Plaid.. a group of 90+ wonderful, intelligent and generous folkes who hold Fun and Honor to be important things in gaming. Important and defining characteristics that we have now discovered translate into kind and graceful individuals in the real world. My freinds span the globe; our gatherings occur to celebrate our commitment to good times and fair play.
And yes.. we play multi-player Halo on the biggest honking TV screen you ever saw.
yea... ur only saying that cuz u wish that ps2 was anywhere near
as good as xbox... if u havent noticed more people buy xbox than
ps2 and ur saying halo sux cuz it is never goin to be on ps2
tell me one thing that ps2 has that xbox doesnt...we j/ got ur
best game gta what now beeotch... i couldn name a billiont hings
xbox has that ps2 doesnt and u say ps3 is gonna be better than
xbox of course it is but xbox 2 will be 50 times better than ps3
Those who know the most.. say the least.
If you knew what I do for a living.. and if I told you were incorrect on a number of points, you still wouldn't change your opinion. Rasonable people would. Ergo, I stop wasting my time on you right this instant.
[b]Console wars don't die, they just get more amusing[/b]
Heh, I have to start regularly visiting PA again.
It's weird having come through a fan boy console war (Mega Drive/Genesis v SNES/Super Famicon) and a similar platform war, only to see the same sort of angry teens and preteens refusing to sit down and have fun, which is what they bought their consoles for in the first place.
To make sure I'd correctly written Super Famicon as the 'other' name for SNES, I did a quick Google. Check out the poll on the site I visited.
look no offense dude but your full of sh*t
Xbox is making more sales?...LOL ps2 has broken the console sales record selling over 60 million units, Its selling more than 5 times the amount!!!! just look at console sales charts before you boast your ignorance
What does PS2 have that xbox doesn't?
Well lets see...
Final Fantasy 10
Devil May Cry
Resident Evil Outbreak
Ratchet & Clank 1/2
Dragon Quest 8
Final Fantasy 10-2
The Mark Of Kri
Way of the Samurai
The Next GTA!!! :P :P (sorry xbox)
The next Gran Turismo
Metal Gear Solid 3!!! (sorry xbox)
Drakangard: The ancients gate
Tekkan series
Resident evil series
They are just a few exclusives I can name from the top of my head add another 50 and theres your answer.
PS2 has WAY more exclusive titles if you've bothered to notice )
So there you have it.....
Enjoy your giant controller
(Also that post is so totally old, and anyway if halo so good, why come to a Halo sucks forum then???
look no offense dude but your full of sh*t
Xbox is making more sales?...LOL ps2 has broken the console sales record selling over 60 million units, Its selling more than 5 times the amount!!!! just look at console sales charts before you boast your ignorance
What does PS2 have that xbox doesn't?
Well lets see...
Final Fantasy 10
Devil May Cry
Resident Evil Outbreak
Ratchet & Clank 1/2
Dragon Quest 8
Final Fantasy 10-2
The Mark Of Kri
Way of the Samurai
The Next GTA!!! :P :P (sorry xbox)
The next Gran Turismo
Metal Gear Solid 3!!! (sorry xbox)
Drakangard: The ancients gate
Tekkan series
Resident evil series
They are just a few exclusives I can name from the top of my head add another 50 and theres your answer.
PS2 has WAY more exclusive titles if you've bothered to notice )
So there you have it.....
Enjoy your giant controller
(Also that post is so totally old, and anyway if halo so good, why come to a Halo sucks forum then??
Cool as hell that you mentioned them in your list. Have you played em? What did you think?
One of the M/S sticking points for the XBox is, quite simply, no one wants to make exclusive titles for it because the sell through is so low (because the XBox 'installed base' is so small). For a while, M/S literally had to buy a small game company and have that company make an exclusive XBox game, which had predictably small sales. It is difficult to imagine a company being profitable in this area for at least 5-7 years with such tactics, and to assume they will 'dominate' the arena any time soon is, well, uninformed. Even their own stockholders meetings would never say as much.
But for the record, making games for the PS2 is far more limiting than the XBox or Gamecube. The texture mem, polycount/second and cpu capabilities of the competition blow the PS2 away. The PS2 hardware is also more difficult to make scream than the other two. It requires a better understanding of low level programming and hyper-specific code optimization.
So that is the argument. The PS2 came out first and is slightly weaker. It has more games (by far) and more exclusives (by far) than the other two. Two of these systems have nice controllers, one does not. Take your pick.
But the fanbois chanting about the future... well.. I've read on the nets (*smile*) about the future... we are talking 200 polys per PIXEL of screen real estate and a CPU to match. Woah.
Of course, polys do NOT equal fun. In fact realism/3D is one of the things consumers demand in a product they buy that more often than not destroys the product they buy. Never again will a mario bros. side scroller reach epic sales, and that is sad. Never again will a top down space shooter enthrall the masses. We must have a 3D character in a 3D world! And this brings a HUGE number of problems from a game design point of view. If it is a shooter, does the character's head get in the way? If he is hopping up and down, how do you show the player where in space he is? This is compounded by not having feet in an actual FPS. making specific jumps easy enough to do and yet challenging/fun is tough. How do you control the camera? With cunning AI? How do you make a world feel large and open while forcing the player down a narrow gameplay path?
Halo's solution is the same as everyone's: The BathTub or the Island. In one of the missions you are along a beach.. this is one half BathTub and one half Island, and the player is restricted to playing around the beach and among the rocks. Next time you play a game like this.. say to yourself "bathtub" when you see it, or "island" when you see that.. if you find any other solutions (other than 'invisible wall') let me know! I'll send ya a buck.
Anyhow... The future of gaming should bring a new level of realism. Let us hope that this translates into a new level of interactivity, multiplayer capability and fun.
-Santa
Oh, attached is a bit of info (From October 2003, and only relating to that month). Parse it as you may, but it may be of interest to note that the PS2 sales leader is making 4 times the cash of the GC or XB leader, and you have to go down to #6 or 7 on the PS2 list to find equal sales. Who would you make games for?
======================================================
US Top 25 Videogame Overall Titles
(Ranked in $$$, not units)
(See units below)
1 PS2 NBA LIVE 2004 Electronic Arts
2 PS2 MADDEN NFL 2004 Electronic Arts
3 PS2 JAK II Sony
4 PS2 WWE: HERE COMES PAIN THQ
5 PS2 TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND Activision
6 GCN SW:ROGUE SQUADRON III LucasArts
7 PS2 TIGER WOODS PGA 2004 Electronic Arts
8 XBX NBA LIVE 2004 Electronic Arts
9 PS2 CASTLEVANIA: LAMENT Konami
10 PS2 SSX 3 Electronic Arts
11 GBA MARIO BROS 3: MARIO 4 Nintendo
12 GCN VIEWTIFUL JOE Capcom
13 PS2 BACKYARD WRESTLING Vivendi
14 XBX T. CLANCY'S RAINBOW 3 Ubi Soft
15 PS2 CONFLICT: DESERT II Take Two Interactive
16 GCN KIRBY AIR RIDE Nintendo
17 PS2 SIMPSONS: HIT & RUN Vivendi
18 XBX CRIMSON SKIES: HIGH Microsoft
19 PS2 ESPN NBA BASKETBALL Sega
20 XBX ESPN NBA BASKETBALL Sega
21 GCN SOUL CALIBUR II Namco
22 PS2 NHL 2004 Electronic Arts
23 PS2 TEENAGE MUTANT TURTLE Konami
24 XBX MADDEN NFL 2004 Electronic Arts
25 XBX CONFLICT: DESERT II Take Two Interactive
Source: CSFB estimates based on NPD Funworld data.
US Top 10 Videogame Titles - System
PS2
Titl Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
PS2 1 NBA LIVE 2004 Electronic Arts $19,311,610 387,363
PS2 2 MADDEN NFL 2004 Electronic Arts $10,151,370 204,064
PS2 3 JAK II Sony $9,525,686 239,217
PS2 4 WWE: HERE COMES PAIN THQ $7,575,488 152,073
PS2 5 TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND Activision $7,166,578 144,842
PS2 6 TIGER WOODS PGA 2004 Electronic Arts $5,678,678 114,109
PS2 7 CASTLEVANIA: LAMENT Konami $4,733,432 95,177
PS2 8 SSX 3 Electronic Arts $4,559,972 91,815
PS2 9 BACKYARD WRESTLING Eidos $3,948,827 79,233
PS2 10 CONFLICT: DESERT II Take-Two Interactive $3,192,561 64,096
XBOX
Titl Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
XBX 1 NBA LIVE 2004 Electronic Arts $5,259,460 105,539
XBX 2 T. CLANCY'S RAINBOW 3 Ubi Soft $3,911,208 78,633
XBX 3 CRIMSON SKIES: HIGH Microsoft $2,948,061 59,379
XBX 4 ESPN NBA BASKETBALL Sega $2,668,353 53,567
XBX 5 MADDEN NFL 2004 Electronic Arts $2,427,489 48,870
XBX 6 CONFLICT: DESERT II Take-Two Interactive $2,353,912 48,345
XBX 7 TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND Activision $2,311,633 46,711
XBX 8 TIGER WOODS PGA 2004 Electronic Arts $2,214,646 44,551
XBX 9 SSX 3 Electronic Arts $1,936,943 38,990
XBX 10 HALO Microsoft $1,813,485 36,547
Gamecube
Titl Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
GCN 1 SW:ROGUE SQUADRON III LucasArts Entertainment $5,744,523 115,672
GCN 2 VIEWTIFUL JOE Capcom $4,060,866 102,231
GCN 3 KIRBY AIR RIDE Nintendo $3,063,197 61,583
GCN 4 SOUL CALIBUR II Namco $2,659,374 54,369
GCN 5 TEENAGE MUTANT TURTLE Konami $1,758,922 43,050
GCN 6 SUPER SMASH BRO MELEE Nintendo $1,532,765 51,201
GCN 7 BILLY HATCHER Sega $1,429,339 37,215
GCN 8 SIMPSONS: HIT & RUN Vivendi Universal $1,419,004 28,999
GCN 9 MARIO GOLF: TOADSTOOL Nintendo $1,326,796 26,699
GCN 10 NBA LIVE 2004 Electronic Arts $1,321,751 26,511
GBA
Titl Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
GBA 1 MARIO BROS 3: MARIO 4 Nintendo $4,543,382 158,748
GBA 2 FINAL FANTASY TACTICS Nintendo $2,030,718 58,999
GBA 3 POKEMON PINBALL: R&S Nintendo $1,356,631 43,877
GBA 4 POKEMON RUBY Nintendo $1,351,664 40,801
GBA 5 POKEMON SAPPHIRE Nintendo $1,236,279 37,323
GBA 6 DONKEY KONG COUNTRY Nintendo $856,780 28,374
GBA 7 KIRBY: NIGHTMARE Nintendo $663,853 21,036
GBA 8 SONIC ADVANCE 2 THQ $647,294 21,152
GBA 9 YU-GI-OH! WORLDWIDE Konami $646,175 18,198
GBA 10 MEGA MAN ZERO 2 Capcom $642,674 21,898
October NPD Hardware Sales
PS2: 300,000 [-10% over September sales]
Xbox: 176,000 [+3%]
GCN: 254,000 [+54%]
GBA: 401,000 [-2%]
As expected video game industry software revenue declined 14.6% due primarily to the tough comparison with the release of Grand Theft Auto: Vice City last year (accounted for 16.4% of the decline in sales). For comparison purposes, without Vice City in last years numbers sales would have grown by 2%. With October certainly the weakest month in the quarter, we continue to expect US industry software sales for the quarter to grow by roughly 15%.
128-bit hardware sales were down 23% y/y due to the lack of a holiday price cut on Xbox and PS2. However, on a sequential basis sales were up 9% driven by a 54% increase in GCN sales, bringing the install base of new consoles to 30.6 million in the U.S. GBA hardware sales grew 28% y/y, bringing the install base to 16.3M in the U.S. GBA software sales grew 10% y/y.
Electronic Arts (ERTS, $100.08, OUTPERFORM, TP $120.00, OW) U.S. videogame sales for the month of October were up 12% versus last year due to the strength of Tiger Woods 2004, NBA Live 2004 and Madden Football 2004. EA placed 5 games in the top 10 in terms of dollars sold and saw its share jump nearly 800bp (though it benefited from the comparison with last years Take-Two driven October).
THQ, Inc.s (THQI, $17.82, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $22.00, OW) U.S. sales increased 49% year over year in October due to a strong performance from the companys WWE and GBA products. Finding Nemo continues to sell well, and Tak & The Power of JuJu had a strong debut, selling over 100,000 units in two weeks of sales.
Activision, Inc.s (ATVI, $15.59, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $17.00, OW) U.S. sales declined 30% year over year for the month of October. The companys Tony Hawk Underground was released late in the month and sold approximately 215,000 units. By comparison last years Tony Hawk Pro Skater 4 sold 234k units in October, though it launched 5 days earlier. November should be a better month for Activision with the launch of True Crime and a full month of THUG.
For Take Two Interactive, (TTWO, $38.20, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $50.00, OW) sales in October were down 80% y/y, but up 44% month over month. November should offer a much better comparison with the launch of Rockstars Manhunt this week. Midway Games, Inc.s (MWY, $2.62, UNDERPERFORM [V], TP $1.50, OW) U.S. sales in the month of October were down 32% year over year.
October 2003 NPD Video Game Sales Data (Wedbush Morgan Report)
NOTE: NPD Funworld reports U.S. retail sales data (does not include wholesale sales such as into the rental market), based upon reporting from an estimated 60% of U.S. retailers. Our analysis compares projected unit sales and projected
retail sales in order to determine which publishers are meeting, exceeding, or falling short of our own internal estimates. The revenue and earnings estimates in our models are based upon worldwide wholesale sales, and each companys retail performance will vary from the wholesale projections in our models. While we cannot be certain that the NPD Funworld data is accurate, we believe that it provides a relevant benchmark for tracking U.S. retail sell-through.
OVERVIEW
On Monday afternoon, NPD Funworld released its October 2003 (four-week period ending November 1, 2003) TRSTS data for U.S. console video game software sales. Total sales were $355 million, up 11% sequentially from Septembers $319 million, but down 15% compared to October 2002s $416 million. Year-to-date sales are $3,335 million compared with prior year-to-date of $3,283 million (a year-over-year increase of 2%).
We expected software sales of $375 million (down 10%), so the overall sales figures were lower than our expectations. In our view, the year-over-year decrease is largely attributable to the difficult comparison to the 74% comp growth in October 2002 driven by huge release of Take-Twos Grand Theft Auto Vice City. We think that it is important to note that unit sales declined by only 2% year-over-year, while average selling prices (ASPs) declined by 12.8%. Notwithstanding the sales decline, we expect growth in software sales to resume in the coming months, with console and handheld software dollar sales for the year ending up 10% from 2002. We expect growth to continue in the mid-teens through 2004.
Top October releases included Electronic Arts NBA Live 2004 (PS2, Xbox, GC) and SSX 3 (PS2, Xbox, GC), Sonys Jak II (PS2), THQs WWE Smackdown Here Comes The Pain (PS2), LucasArts Star Wars: Rebel Strike - Rogue Squadron III (GC), and Activisions Tony Hawk's Underground (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA).
Sales were also driven by continuing catalog sales of Electronic Arts Madden NFL 2004 (PS2, GC, Xbox, PC, PSX, GBA) and Tiger Woods PGA 2004 (PS2, GC, Xbox, PC). There were 10 games selling more than 100,000 units apiece in October (compared to nine last month). The top 200 games (out of 3,000 games sold in October) captured 62% of unit sales and 72% of dollar sales, compared with 62% of unit sales and 71% of dollar sales in September, while the top 10 captured 22% of dollar sales in October versus 24% last month. The average selling price of all games (console and handheld, legacy and current generation) was $32.09, down from last years $36.79 ASP but up from Septembers $30.47, indicating that new releases were a larger portion of the mix than last month. We expect a proliferation
of full-priced best sellers to drive ASPs higher over the balance of the year, and expect relatively easy comparisons for the key months of November and December to drive strong unit sales gains.
ANALYSIS
In our October preview note of NPD Funworld data dated November 13, we projected retail sales figures for the six companies we cover. Our models typically assume sell-through of approximately 50% of the units shipped within the first four weeks of release.
The following is an analysis of each companys results.
Acclaim Entertainment (AKLMHold)
Releases during October: None.
October Retail Sales--$ 5 million
WMS Estimate--$5 million
Acclaims market share decreased sequentially from 1.6% last month to 1.4% while retail sales were flat at $5 million (compared with $7 million last October). Acclaims sales were led by NBA Jam 2004, which sold 22,000 units combined. Catalog sales of All-
Star Baseball 2004, ATV Quad Power Racing, Burnout, Mary Kate & Ashley, Legends of Wrestling, and Turok continue to generate incremental sales. The companys ASP for all units sold was $23.10, down from last years $31.78. This decline of 27% was greater than the industry average 12.9% decline, and reflects a shift in the mix of Acclaims sales toward lower-priced catalog games.
Activision (ATVIBuy and Focus List)
Releases during October: 10/21 Empires: Dawn of the Modern World (PC), 10/27 Tony Hawk's Underground (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA), 10/29 Call of Duty (PC).
October Retail Sales--$19 million
WMS Estimate--$25 million
Activisions market share increased sequentially from 3.5% last month to 5.4%, and retail sales from $11 million to $19 million (compared with $27 million last October). Tony Hawk's Underground sold 216,000 units compared with our estimate of 250,000 units across all platforms. We think that this sell-through figure is respectable, given that this years version of Tony Hawk was available for only five days during the month, and sold through nearly as many copies as last years version, which sold 231,000 copies in 12 days of release during October. Catalog sales were driven by Cabelas Deer Hunt, Tony Hawk, Spider-Man, Return to Castle Wolfenstein, and X-Men games. Activisions ASP for all units sold was $32.22, down from last years $36.09. This decline of 10.7% was better than the industry average 12.9% decline, and reflects a favorable shift in the mix of Activisions sales toward
higher-priced new releases.
Electronic Arts (ERTSHold)
Releases during October: 10/14 NBA Live 2004 (PS2, Xbox, GC), 10/20 SSX 3 (PS2, Xbox, GC), 10/28 Harry Potter Quidditch World Cup (PS2, GC, Xbox, GBA, PC), 10/28 The Sims Magic Expansion (PC).
October Retail Sales--$86 million
WMS Estimate--$85 million
Electronic Arts market share decreased sequentially from 25.1% last month to 24.3%, but retail sales increased from $80 million to $86 million (compared to $77 million last October). Electronic Arts had another outstanding month driven by the release of NBA Live 2004 selling 519,000 units combined. SSX 3 sold 152,000 units combined compared with our estimate of 200,000 units. Madden NFL 2004 continued to sell well with 307,000 units sold across all platforms (on top of the 2.5 million units sold so far), compared to 286,000 units last October. The companys catalog sales of NCAA Football 2004, Tiger Woods Golf, NASCAR Thunder 2004 were also quite strong. The companys ASP for all units sold was $42.11, down from last years $42.71. This decline of 1.4% was significantly better than the industry average 12.9% decline, and reflects Electronic Arts ability to maintain a favorable mix of sales toward higher-priced new releases.
Midway Games (MWYHold)
Releases during October: 10/14 RoadKill (PS2, Xbox), 10/20 Super Duper Sumos (GBA), 10/27 NFL Blitz Pro (PS2).
October Retail Sales--$5 million
WMS Estimate--$6 million
Midways market share increased sequentially from 1.2% last month to 1.4%, and retail sales from $4 million to $5 million (compared with $7 million last October). Midways overall sales were about in line with what we expected. RoadKill sold 17,000 units combined compared with our estimate of 15,000 units. The companys best-selling title was Mortal Kombat Deadly Alliance, which sold 53,000 units across all platforms. Midways ASP for all units sold was $24.56, down from last years $32.80. This decline of 25% was greater than the industry average 12.9% decline, and reflects a shift in the mix of Midways sales toward lower priced catalog games.
Take-Two Interactive (TTWOBuy and Focus List)
Releases during October: 10/7 Conflict: Desert Storm II (PS2, Xbox, PC), 10/14 Celebrity Deathmatch (PS2, Xbox, PC, PSX), 10/14 Max Payne 2 (PC), 10/14 Space Colony (PC), 10/21 Grand Theft Auto Double Pack (PS2), 10/21 Hidden & Dangerous II
(PC), 10/21 Railroad Tycoon III (PC).
October Retail Sales--$16 million
WMS Estimate--$13 million
Take-Twos market share increased sequentially from 3.4% last month to 4.4%, and retail sales from $11 million to $16 million (compared with $79 million last October). Its biggest release this month was Conflict: Desert Storm II selling 112,000 units
combined, significantly higher than our estimate of 40,000 units. Its Grand Theft Auto Double Pack for PS2 showed decent sellthrough in October with 30,000 units sold in only a week, and competed with the individual titles for each game, which sold a
combined 120,000 units. The company also showed continued sales strength from its catalog games of Max Payne, Midnight Club, and Conflict: Desert Storm games. Take-Twos ASP for all units sold was $28.18, down from last years $45.05. This decline of 37.4% was greater than the industry average 12.9% decline, and reflects a considerable shift in the mix of the companys sales toward lower-priced catalog games. The ASP decline was expected, given that sales of Grand Theft Auto: Vice City comprised
86% of last Octobers sales for Take-Two.
THQ (THQIBuy)
Releases during October: 10/16 Tak and the Power of JuJu (PS2, GC, GBA), 10/21 Hot Wheels World Race (GC, PS2), 10/28 WWE Smackdown Here Comes The Pain (PS2), 10/29 SpongeBob SquarePants: Battle for Bikini Bottom (PS2, Xbox, GC).
October Retail Sales--$27 million
WMS Estimate--$35 million
THQs market share was flat at 7.7%, with retail sales increasing from $25 million to $27 million (compared with $18 million last October). THQs biggest seller was WWE Smackdown (PS2), selling 152,000 units compared with our estimate of 150,000 units. Tak and the Power of JuJu did relatively well with 101,000 units sold across all platforms. THQ again had sales that were broadbased, with 25 titles (eight Game Boy games) selling 10,000 or more units, compared with 21 titles (seven Game Boy games) that sold 10,000 or more units last month. We expect THQ to continue to benefit from strong Nintendo GBA SP sales over the
remainder of the year. THQs ASP for all units sold was $31.10, up from last years $29.42. This increase of 5.7% was significantly better than the industry average 12.9% decline, and reflects a favorable shift in the mix of THQs sales toward higher priced new releases. It is significant to note that the companys WWE titles generated over 35% of total sales at an ASP of $49.79, driving up the overall ASP.
CONCLUSION
October overall retail sales were lower than we expected, coming in at $355 million compared to our estimate of $375 million. We are encouraged that the overall decline was in large part attributable to a decline in ASPs, with unit sales off only 2% year-over year. We expect growth to resume at a strong double-digit pace in November and December and anticipate overall industry growth to end the year up 10% over 2002. We expect November sales to be led by strong releases of Activisions True Crime: Streets of LA (PS2, Xbox, GC), Electronic Arts Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA, PC) and Medal of Honor: Rising Sun (PS2, Xbox, GC), Take-Twos Manhunt (PS2) and Grand Theft Auto Double Pack (Xbox), Nintendos Mario Kart Double Dash (GC), Sonys SOCOM 2 (PS2), and Ubi Softs Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA, PC).
Electronic Arts continues to generate sales well in excess of last years levels and we expect it to maintain its market share in the last two months of 2003. THQs and Activision sales were lower than we expected, but both companies key releases for the
month performed within expectations. Acclaim, Midway, and Take-Two results were about in line with our expectations.
We believe that the market may react negatively to the NPD data, as we believe that the investment community will be disappointed with only 2% growth so far this year, and we anticipate some reaction to another negative growth month. However, we think that it is important for investors to recognize that last years explosive growth was attributable not only to console price cuts, but to the relatively rapid penetration of the Xbox and GameCube consoles, both of which debuted in late 2001. This year, we expect a crescendo in sales over the last two months of the year, as the substantial installed base of console owners makes their market presence felt.
October 2003 Market Share Rankings (Top 30 Companies)
T o ta l 355,355,391 $
Company Projected $'s Market Share
1 ELECTRONIC ARTS 86,218,660$ 24.3%
2 NINTENDO OF AMERICA 30,369,090$ 8.5%
3 THQ 27,413,360$ 7.7%
4 SONY 21,235,340$ 6.0%
5 ACTIVISION 19,147,470$ 5.4%
6 KONAMI OF AMERICA 18,539,030$ 5.2%
7 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE 15,742,340$ 4.4%
8 SEGA OF AMERICA 14,608,810$ 4.1%
9 NAMCO 14,030,460$ 3.9%
10 VIVENDI UNIVERSAL 13,046,710$ 3.7%
11 CAPCOM USA 11,012,100$ 3.1%
12 ATARI 10,966,550$ 3.1%
13 UBISOFT 10,222,980$ 2.9%
14 MICROSOFT 9,964,066$ 2.8%
15 LUCAS ARTS ENTERTAINMENT 9,860,034$ 2.8%
16 EIDOS INTERACTIVE 8,264,116 $2.3%
17 ACCLAIM ENTERTAINMENT 4,930,708$ 1.4%
18 MIDWAY 4,884,293 $1.4%
19 SQUARE ENIX USA 3,181,460$ 0.9%
20 TDK MEDIACTIVE 2,580,983 $ 0.7%
There is PLENTY of money to go around on ALL THREE consoles (and
GBA!).
The console wars are over, and the PLAYERS won!!!
Freedom of choice is a wonderful, wonderful thing...
Just like Apple doesn't need to 'win' the platform wars to be 'viable', the same with these consoles. I like the diversity. Competition is good, et al.
...watching high school kids drawing swords over which console is the 'bestest'?
As far as rational thought goes the war is over, and was never really 'on', but from ages 12 to 18, they rage violently, and always will. Same deal with operating systems. Well, unless you're a Linux geek, in which case you will never step away from the fight.
Granted, who am I to judge a game? I sure as hell couldn't develop anything let alone a FPS, but I've seen Halo over and over and over and over again, in one form or the other. First person shooter, varying levels of difficulty, pattern based enemies, open the doors, go to another area, shoot. Collect bullets. Shoot. Collect grenades. Open door. Shoot. Complete level. BORING, truly BORING. Cripes, this game is no better (as gameplay goes) that Blake Stone of many years ago. I'd rather play Escape From the Mindmaster on my Supercharged Atari 2600. Halo IS sorely overrated, but Xbox goons (stereotypical pot smoking, mullet haircutted Camaro drivers) need something to get excited about.
Yeah, I bought it Sunday night and finished it Tuesday.
Absolutely. Even the people who really like the game complain
about that aspect. The only thing worse than a boring
environment is one that's been cut-and-pasted 12 times to make
the level longer. And the only thing worse than THAT is when the
freaking game makes you go back and do those same maps again
later! Sheesh... The game is short enough as it is, and if you
took out all the redundancy, it would be about 1/5 its current
length.
I actually found the story pretty mundane. I won't go into
details though, as it involves spoilers. Needless to say, the
story was nothing that hasn't been done before in other games
(and yes, I mean before Halo's initial release 2 years ago).
Very disappointing from the folks that made TFL, which had a
great story.
The vehicles were a huge disappointment to me. The controls for
them are, without question, the worst driving controls of any
game I've ever played. "Mash the forward button and the
vehicle will quiver and ooze in the general direction you're
looking." Perhaps it was done that way to work well on
consoles, I don't know. But then again, there are plenty of
driving games on the console, all with controls that make you
feel like you're... you know... actually DRIVING. It's too bad
no one at Bungie apparently ever played any driving games.
I've played a fair bit of Planetside, and it simply blows Halo
away in terms of mixing FPS and vehicular combat. So much more
fun. Oh yeah, you also get to fight battles with dozens of other
people on each side. Sorry Halo, maybe 2 years ago, but not in
2003.
I enjoyed Half-life more than Halo in just about every way, and
that came out 5 years ago... 3 years before the initial release
of Halo. Better environments, more interesting enemies, and
better gameplay.
I will concede that the physics engine in Halo is fantastic. It
makes for some very satisfying battlefield antics. But in the
end, that's all they are... antics and eye-candy. The game
itself is a write-off for me.
Comments
I got the game Saturday night and finished it by Sunday night with sporadic playing. It was very repetetive and boring. Though the story line was good, I'd much rather have a boring story and good game play.
Multiplayer seems like more of an afterthought than a game feature. UT blows Halo away and how old is it? I won't even mention Tribes II and Halo in the same sentence. (ooops, I just did. Sorry Sierra)
Well, at least I got a cool $40 Halo coaster to set my drink on while I play the free download America's Army.
Yeah, I bought it Sunday night and finished it Tuesday.
Absolutely. Even the people who really like the game complain about that aspect. The only thing worse than a boring environment is one that's been cut-and-pasted 12 times to make the level longer. And the only thing worse than THAT is when the freaking game makes you go back and do those same maps again later! Sheesh... The game is short enough as it is, and if you took out all the redundancy, it would be about 1/5 its current length.
I actually found the story pretty mundane. I won't go into details though, as it involves spoilers. Needless to say, the story was nothing that hasn't been done before in other games (and yes, I mean before Halo's initial release 2 years ago). Very disappointing from the folks that made TFL, which had a great story.
The vehicles were a huge disappointment to me. The controls for them are, without question, the worst driving controls of any game I've ever played. "Mash the forward button and the vehicle will quiver and ooze in the general direction you're looking." Perhaps it was done that way to work well on consoles, I don't know. But then again, there are plenty of driving games on the console, all with controls that make you feel like you're... you know... actually DRIVING. It's too bad no one at Bungie apparently ever played any driving games.
I've played a fair bit of Planetside, and it simply blows Halo away in terms of mixing FPS and vehicular combat. So much more fun. Oh yeah, you also get to fight battles with dozens of other people on each side. Sorry Halo, maybe 2 years ago, but not in 2003.
I enjoyed Half-life more than Halo in just about every way, and that came out 5 years ago... 3 years before the initial release of Halo. Better environments, more interesting enemies, and better gameplay.
I will concede that the physics engine in Halo is fantastic. It makes for some very satisfying battlefield antics. But in the end, that's all they are... antics and eye-candy. The game itself is a write-off for me.
-Cauldyth
It's xbox
what do you expect?
PS2 forever
there can only be one!
Don't bate fools, you sili young man.
Gilbert, the fact that the game was originally released for the XBox is, uh, irrelevant to the quality of the game. I'm sure we could find some god awful PSX titles if we had the time to look around.
Corak's sense of bewilderment comes from the fact that we were been playing another of Bungie's series, Myth, fairly regularly for, oh, 3 years from when TFL was released in late 1997. Are we going to go back to the fun fun days of "MY MAC PKWNZ UR PC BICH"? Quite frankly, who cares which platform the game was released on? It makes nilski difference how much fun the game is.
-Cob
The multiplayer feature of halo is what makes halo the best game. I think the problem with you is you have no friends to come over and play the game with you, so the only thing you can do is play AA on the net. You know it's true, if you havn't played halo multiplayer and you own the game, that means you have no friends. Face the fact you loser!
yea... ur only saying that cuz u wish that ps2 was anywhere near as good as xbox... if u havent noticed more people buy xbox than ps2 and ur saying halo sux cuz it is never goin to be on ps2 tell me one thing that ps2 has that xbox doesnt...we j/ got ur best game gta what now beeotch... i couldn name a billiont hings xbox has that ps2 doesnt and u say ps3 is gonna be better than xbox of course it is but xbox 2 will be 50 times better than ps3
Bloody Hell...I think I felt my brain oozing out my ear after reading that one...
McG
You know... after postings like this, I remember how blessed I am to be a MEMBER of Clan Plaid.. a group of 90+ wonderful, intelligent and generous folkes who hold Fun and Honor to be important things in gaming. Important and defining characteristics that we have now discovered translate into kind and graceful individuals in the real world. My freinds span the globe; our gatherings occur to celebrate our commitment to good times and fair play.
And yes.. we play multi-player Halo on the biggest honking TV screen you ever saw.
-SH
Those who know the most.. say the least.
If you knew what I do for a living.. and if I told you were incorrect on a number of points, you still wouldn't change your opinion. Rasonable people would. Ergo, I stop wasting my time on you right this instant.
Later gatorz
-SH
I think that the only thing bigger would be an actual Movie Screen at the Theater.
Halo...on the BIG Screen...
almost scary...ins't it?
McGyver
Reminds me of this.
-Mori
Heh, I have to start regularly visiting PA again.
It's weird having come through a fan boy console war (Mega Drive/Genesis v SNES/Super Famicon) and a similar platform war, only to see the same sort of angry teens and preteens refusing to sit down and have fun, which is what they bought their consoles for in the first place.
To make sure I'd correctly written Super Famicon as the 'other' name for SNES, I did a quick Google. Check out the poll on the site I visited.
-Cob
look no offense dude but your full of sh*t
Xbox is making more sales?...LOL ps2 has broken the console sales record selling over 60 million units, Its selling more than 5 times the amount!!!! just look at console sales charts before you boast your ignorance
What does PS2 have that xbox doesn't?
Well lets see...
Final Fantasy 10
Devil May Cry
Resident Evil Outbreak
Ratchet & Clank 1/2
Dragon Quest 8
Final Fantasy 10-2
The Mark Of Kri
Way of the Samurai
The Next GTA!!! :P :P (sorry xbox)
The next Gran Turismo
Metal Gear Solid 3!!! (sorry xbox)
Drakangard: The ancients gate
Tekkan series
Resident evil series
They are just a few exclusives I can name from the top of my head add another 50 and theres your answer.
PS2 has WAY more exclusive titles if you've bothered to notice
So there you have it.....
Enjoy your giant controller
(Also that post is so totally old, and anyway if halo so good, why come to a Halo sucks forum then???
look no offense dude but your full of sh*t
Xbox is making more sales?...LOL ps2 has broken the console sales record selling over 60 million units, Its selling more than 5 times the amount!!!! just look at console sales charts before you boast your ignorance
What does PS2 have that xbox doesn't?
Well lets see...
Final Fantasy 10
Devil May Cry
Resident Evil Outbreak
Ratchet & Clank 1/2
Dragon Quest 8
Final Fantasy 10-2
The Mark Of Kri
Way of the Samurai
The Next GTA!!! :P :P (sorry xbox)
The next Gran Turismo
Metal Gear Solid 3!!! (sorry xbox)
Drakangard: The ancients gate
Tekkan series
Resident evil series
They are just a few exclusives I can name from the top of my head add another 50 and theres your answer.
PS2 has WAY more exclusive titles if you've bothered to notice
So there you have it.....
Enjoy your giant controller
(Also that post is so totally old, and anyway if halo so good, why come to a Halo sucks forum then??
I worked on these! *8)
Cool as hell that you mentioned them in your list. Have you played em? What did you think?
One of the M/S sticking points for the XBox is, quite simply, no one wants to make exclusive titles for it because the sell through is so low (because the XBox 'installed base' is so small). For a while, M/S literally had to buy a small game company and have that company make an exclusive XBox game, which had predictably small sales. It is difficult to imagine a company being profitable in this area for at least 5-7 years with such tactics, and to assume they will 'dominate' the arena any time soon is, well, uninformed. Even their own stockholders meetings would never say as much.
But for the record, making games for the PS2 is far more limiting than the XBox or Gamecube. The texture mem, polycount/second and cpu capabilities of the competition blow the PS2 away. The PS2 hardware is also more difficult to make scream than the other two. It requires a better understanding of low level programming and hyper-specific code optimization.
So that is the argument. The PS2 came out first and is slightly weaker. It has more games (by far) and more exclusives (by far) than the other two. Two of these systems have nice controllers, one does not. Take your pick.
But the fanbois chanting about the future... well.. I've read on the nets (*smile*) about the future... we are talking 200 polys per PIXEL of screen real estate and a CPU to match. Woah.
Of course, polys do NOT equal fun. In fact realism/3D is one of the things consumers demand in a product they buy that more often than not destroys the product they buy. Never again will a mario bros. side scroller reach epic sales, and that is sad. Never again will a top down space shooter enthrall the masses. We must have a 3D character in a 3D world! And this brings a HUGE number of problems from a game design point of view. If it is a shooter, does the character's head get in the way? If he is hopping up and down, how do you show the player where in space he is? This is compounded by not having feet in an actual FPS. making specific jumps easy enough to do and yet challenging/fun is tough. How do you control the camera? With cunning AI? How do you make a world feel large and open while forcing the player down a narrow gameplay path?
Halo's solution is the same as everyone's: The BathTub or the Island. In one of the missions you are along a beach.. this is one half BathTub and one half Island, and the player is restricted to playing around the beach and among the rocks. Next time you play a game like this.. say to yourself "bathtub" when you see it, or "island" when you see that.. if you find any other solutions (other than 'invisible wall') let me know! I'll send ya a buck.
Anyhow... The future of gaming should bring a new level of realism. Let us hope that this translates into a new level of interactivity, multiplayer capability and fun.
-Santa
Oh, attached is a bit of info (From October 2003, and only relating to that month). Parse it as you may, but it may be of interest to note that the PS2 sales leader is making 4 times the cash of the GC or XB leader, and you have to go down to #6 or 7 on the PS2 list to find equal sales. Who would you make games for?
======================================================
US Top 25 Videogame Overall Titles
(Ranked in $$$, not units)
(See units below)
1 PS2 NBA LIVE 2004 Electronic Arts
2 PS2 MADDEN NFL 2004 Electronic Arts
3 PS2 JAK II Sony
4 PS2 WWE: HERE COMES PAIN THQ
5 PS2 TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND Activision
6 GCN SW:ROGUE SQUADRON III LucasArts
7 PS2 TIGER WOODS PGA 2004 Electronic Arts
8 XBX NBA LIVE 2004 Electronic Arts
9 PS2 CASTLEVANIA: LAMENT Konami
10 PS2 SSX 3 Electronic Arts
11 GBA MARIO BROS 3: MARIO 4 Nintendo
12 GCN VIEWTIFUL JOE Capcom
13 PS2 BACKYARD WRESTLING Vivendi
14 XBX T. CLANCY'S RAINBOW 3 Ubi Soft
15 PS2 CONFLICT: DESERT II Take Two Interactive
16 GCN KIRBY AIR RIDE Nintendo
17 PS2 SIMPSONS: HIT & RUN Vivendi
18 XBX CRIMSON SKIES: HIGH Microsoft
19 PS2 ESPN NBA BASKETBALL Sega
20 XBX ESPN NBA BASKETBALL Sega
21 GCN SOUL CALIBUR II Namco
22 PS2 NHL 2004 Electronic Arts
23 PS2 TEENAGE MUTANT TURTLE Konami
24 XBX MADDEN NFL 2004 Electronic Arts
25 XBX CONFLICT: DESERT II Take Two Interactive
Source: CSFB estimates based on NPD Funworld data.
US Top 10 Videogame Titles - System
PS2
Titl Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
PS2 1 NBA LIVE 2004 Electronic Arts $19,311,610 387,363
PS2 2 MADDEN NFL 2004 Electronic Arts $10,151,370 204,064
PS2 3 JAK II Sony $9,525,686 239,217
PS2 4 WWE: HERE COMES PAIN THQ $7,575,488 152,073
PS2 5 TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND Activision $7,166,578 144,842
PS2 6 TIGER WOODS PGA 2004 Electronic Arts $5,678,678 114,109
PS2 7 CASTLEVANIA: LAMENT Konami $4,733,432 95,177
PS2 8 SSX 3 Electronic Arts $4,559,972 91,815
PS2 9 BACKYARD WRESTLING Eidos $3,948,827 79,233
PS2 10 CONFLICT: DESERT II Take-Two Interactive $3,192,561 64,096
XBOX
Titl Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
XBX 1 NBA LIVE 2004 Electronic Arts $5,259,460 105,539
XBX 2 T. CLANCY'S RAINBOW 3 Ubi Soft $3,911,208 78,633
XBX 3 CRIMSON SKIES: HIGH Microsoft $2,948,061 59,379
XBX 4 ESPN NBA BASKETBALL Sega $2,668,353 53,567
XBX 5 MADDEN NFL 2004 Electronic Arts $2,427,489 48,870
XBX 6 CONFLICT: DESERT II Take-Two Interactive $2,353,912 48,345
XBX 7 TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND Activision $2,311,633 46,711
XBX 8 TIGER WOODS PGA 2004 Electronic Arts $2,214,646 44,551
XBX 9 SSX 3 Electronic Arts $1,936,943 38,990
XBX 10 HALO Microsoft $1,813,485 36,547
Gamecube
Titl Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
GCN 1 SW:ROGUE SQUADRON III LucasArts Entertainment $5,744,523 115,672
GCN 2 VIEWTIFUL JOE Capcom $4,060,866 102,231
GCN 3 KIRBY AIR RIDE Nintendo $3,063,197 61,583
GCN 4 SOUL CALIBUR II Namco $2,659,374 54,369
GCN 5 TEENAGE MUTANT TURTLE Konami $1,758,922 43,050
GCN 6 SUPER SMASH BRO MELEE Nintendo $1,532,765 51,201
GCN 7 BILLY HATCHER Sega $1,429,339 37,215
GCN 8 SIMPSONS: HIT & RUN Vivendi Universal $1,419,004 28,999
GCN 9 MARIO GOLF: TOADSTOOL Nintendo $1,326,796 26,699
GCN 10 NBA LIVE 2004 Electronic Arts $1,321,751 26,511
GBA
Titl Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
GBA 1 MARIO BROS 3: MARIO 4 Nintendo $4,543,382 158,748
GBA 2 FINAL FANTASY TACTICS Nintendo $2,030,718 58,999
GBA 3 POKEMON PINBALL: R&S Nintendo $1,356,631 43,877
GBA 4 POKEMON RUBY Nintendo $1,351,664 40,801
GBA 5 POKEMON SAPPHIRE Nintendo $1,236,279 37,323
GBA 6 DONKEY KONG COUNTRY Nintendo $856,780 28,374
GBA 7 KIRBY: NIGHTMARE Nintendo $663,853 21,036
GBA 8 SONIC ADVANCE 2 THQ $647,294 21,152
GBA 9 YU-GI-OH! WORLDWIDE Konami $646,175 18,198
GBA 10 MEGA MAN ZERO 2 Capcom $642,674 21,898
October NPD Hardware Sales
PS2: 300,000 [-10% over September sales]
Xbox: 176,000 [+3%]
GCN: 254,000 [+54%]
GBA: 401,000 [-2%]
Cumulative Installed Base
PS2: 19,439,000
Xbox: 6,178,000
GCN: 4,948,000
GBA: 16,310,000
Oct Videogame Sales Results
As expected video game industry software revenue declined 14.6% due primarily to the tough comparison with the release of Grand Theft Auto: Vice City last year (accounted for 16.4% of the decline in sales). For comparison purposes, without Vice City in last years numbers sales would have grown by 2%. With October certainly the weakest month in the quarter, we continue to expect US industry software sales for the quarter to grow by roughly 15%.
128-bit hardware sales were down 23% y/y due to the lack of a holiday price cut on Xbox and PS2. However, on a sequential basis sales were up 9% driven by a 54% increase in GCN sales, bringing the install base of new consoles to 30.6 million in the U.S. GBA hardware sales grew 28% y/y, bringing the install base to 16.3M in the U.S. GBA software sales grew 10% y/y.
Electronic Arts (ERTS, $100.08, OUTPERFORM, TP $120.00, OW) U.S. videogame sales for the month of October were up 12% versus last year due to the strength of Tiger Woods 2004, NBA Live 2004 and Madden Football 2004. EA placed 5 games in the top 10 in terms of dollars sold and saw its share jump nearly 800bp (though it benefited from the comparison with last years Take-Two driven October).
THQ, Inc.s (THQI, $17.82, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $22.00, OW) U.S. sales increased 49% year over year in October due to a strong performance from the companys WWE and GBA products. Finding Nemo continues to sell well, and Tak & The Power of JuJu had a strong debut, selling over 100,000 units in two weeks of sales.
Activision, Inc.s (ATVI, $15.59, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $17.00, OW) U.S. sales declined 30% year over year for the month of October. The companys Tony Hawk Underground was released late in the month and sold approximately 215,000 units. By comparison last years Tony Hawk Pro Skater 4 sold 234k units in October, though it launched 5 days earlier. November should be a better month for Activision with the launch of True Crime and a full month of THUG.
For Take Two Interactive, (TTWO, $38.20, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $50.00, OW) sales in October were down 80% y/y, but up 44% month over month. November should offer a much better comparison with the launch of Rockstars Manhunt this week. Midway Games, Inc.s (MWY, $2.62, UNDERPERFORM [V], TP $1.50, OW) U.S. sales in the month of October were down 32% year over year.
October 2003 NPD Video Game Sales Data (Wedbush Morgan Report)
NOTE: NPD Funworld reports U.S. retail sales data (does not include wholesale sales such as into the rental market), based upon reporting from an estimated 60% of U.S. retailers. Our analysis compares projected unit sales and projected
retail sales in order to determine which publishers are meeting, exceeding, or falling short of our own internal estimates. The revenue and earnings estimates in our models are based upon worldwide wholesale sales, and each companys retail performance will vary from the wholesale projections in our models. While we cannot be certain that the NPD Funworld data is accurate, we believe that it provides a relevant benchmark for tracking U.S. retail sell-through.
OVERVIEW
On Monday afternoon, NPD Funworld released its October 2003 (four-week period ending November 1, 2003) TRSTS data for U.S. console video game software sales. Total sales were $355 million, up 11% sequentially from Septembers $319 million, but down 15% compared to October 2002s $416 million. Year-to-date sales are $3,335 million compared with prior year-to-date of $3,283 million (a year-over-year increase of 2%).
We expected software sales of $375 million (down 10%), so the overall sales figures were lower than our expectations. In our view, the year-over-year decrease is largely attributable to the difficult comparison to the 74% comp growth in October 2002 driven by huge release of Take-Twos Grand Theft Auto Vice City. We think that it is important to note that unit sales declined by only 2% year-over-year, while average selling prices (ASPs) declined by 12.8%. Notwithstanding the sales decline, we expect growth in software sales to resume in the coming months, with console and handheld software dollar sales for the year ending up 10% from 2002. We expect growth to continue in the mid-teens through 2004.
Top October releases included Electronic Arts NBA Live 2004 (PS2, Xbox, GC) and SSX 3 (PS2, Xbox, GC), Sonys Jak II (PS2), THQs WWE Smackdown Here Comes The Pain (PS2), LucasArts Star Wars: Rebel Strike - Rogue Squadron III (GC), and Activisions Tony Hawk's Underground (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA).
Sales were also driven by continuing catalog sales of Electronic Arts Madden NFL 2004 (PS2, GC, Xbox, PC, PSX, GBA) and Tiger Woods PGA 2004 (PS2, GC, Xbox, PC). There were 10 games selling more than 100,000 units apiece in October (compared to nine last month). The top 200 games (out of 3,000 games sold in October) captured 62% of unit sales and 72% of dollar sales, compared with 62% of unit sales and 71% of dollar sales in September, while the top 10 captured 22% of dollar sales in October versus 24% last month. The average selling price of all games (console and handheld, legacy and current generation) was $32.09, down from last years $36.79 ASP but up from Septembers $30.47, indicating that new releases were a larger portion of the mix than last month. We expect a proliferation
of full-priced best sellers to drive ASPs higher over the balance of the year, and expect relatively easy comparisons for the key months of November and December to drive strong unit sales gains.
ANALYSIS
In our October preview note of NPD Funworld data dated November 13, we projected retail sales figures for the six companies we cover. Our models typically assume sell-through of approximately 50% of the units shipped within the first four weeks of release.
The following is an analysis of each companys results.
Acclaim Entertainment (AKLMHold)
Releases during October: None.
October Retail Sales--$ 5 million
WMS Estimate--$5 million
Acclaims market share decreased sequentially from 1.6% last month to 1.4% while retail sales were flat at $5 million (compared with $7 million last October). Acclaims sales were led by NBA Jam 2004, which sold 22,000 units combined. Catalog sales of All-
Star Baseball 2004, ATV Quad Power Racing, Burnout, Mary Kate & Ashley, Legends of Wrestling, and Turok continue to generate incremental sales. The companys ASP for all units sold was $23.10, down from last years $31.78. This decline of 27% was greater than the industry average 12.9% decline, and reflects a shift in the mix of Acclaims sales toward lower-priced catalog games.
Activision (ATVIBuy and Focus List)
Releases during October: 10/21 Empires: Dawn of the Modern World (PC), 10/27 Tony Hawk's Underground (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA), 10/29 Call of Duty (PC).
October Retail Sales--$19 million
WMS Estimate--$25 million
Activisions market share increased sequentially from 3.5% last month to 5.4%, and retail sales from $11 million to $19 million (compared with $27 million last October). Tony Hawk's Underground sold 216,000 units compared with our estimate of 250,000 units across all platforms. We think that this sell-through figure is respectable, given that this years version of Tony Hawk was available for only five days during the month, and sold through nearly as many copies as last years version, which sold 231,000 copies in 12 days of release during October. Catalog sales were driven by Cabelas Deer Hunt, Tony Hawk, Spider-Man, Return to Castle Wolfenstein, and X-Men games. Activisions ASP for all units sold was $32.22, down from last years $36.09. This decline of 10.7% was better than the industry average 12.9% decline, and reflects a favorable shift in the mix of Activisions sales toward
higher-priced new releases.
Electronic Arts (ERTSHold)
Releases during October: 10/14 NBA Live 2004 (PS2, Xbox, GC), 10/20 SSX 3 (PS2, Xbox, GC), 10/28 Harry Potter Quidditch World Cup (PS2, GC, Xbox, GBA, PC), 10/28 The Sims Magic Expansion (PC).
October Retail Sales--$86 million
WMS Estimate--$85 million
Electronic Arts market share decreased sequentially from 25.1% last month to 24.3%, but retail sales increased from $80 million to $86 million (compared to $77 million last October). Electronic Arts had another outstanding month driven by the release of NBA Live 2004 selling 519,000 units combined. SSX 3 sold 152,000 units combined compared with our estimate of 200,000 units. Madden NFL 2004 continued to sell well with 307,000 units sold across all platforms (on top of the 2.5 million units sold so far), compared to 286,000 units last October. The companys catalog sales of NCAA Football 2004, Tiger Woods Golf, NASCAR Thunder 2004 were also quite strong. The companys ASP for all units sold was $42.11, down from last years $42.71. This decline of 1.4% was significantly better than the industry average 12.9% decline, and reflects Electronic Arts ability to maintain a favorable mix of sales toward higher-priced new releases.
Midway Games (MWYHold)
Releases during October: 10/14 RoadKill (PS2, Xbox), 10/20 Super Duper Sumos (GBA), 10/27 NFL Blitz Pro (PS2).
October Retail Sales--$5 million
WMS Estimate--$6 million
Midways market share increased sequentially from 1.2% last month to 1.4%, and retail sales from $4 million to $5 million (compared with $7 million last October). Midways overall sales were about in line with what we expected. RoadKill sold 17,000 units combined compared with our estimate of 15,000 units. The companys best-selling title was Mortal Kombat Deadly Alliance, which sold 53,000 units across all platforms. Midways ASP for all units sold was $24.56, down from last years $32.80. This decline of 25% was greater than the industry average 12.9% decline, and reflects a shift in the mix of Midways sales toward lower priced catalog games.
Take-Two Interactive (TTWOBuy and Focus List)
Releases during October: 10/7 Conflict: Desert Storm II (PS2, Xbox, PC), 10/14 Celebrity Deathmatch (PS2, Xbox, PC, PSX), 10/14 Max Payne 2 (PC), 10/14 Space Colony (PC), 10/21 Grand Theft Auto Double Pack (PS2), 10/21 Hidden & Dangerous II
(PC), 10/21 Railroad Tycoon III (PC).
October Retail Sales--$16 million
WMS Estimate--$13 million
Take-Twos market share increased sequentially from 3.4% last month to 4.4%, and retail sales from $11 million to $16 million (compared with $79 million last October). Its biggest release this month was Conflict: Desert Storm II selling 112,000 units
combined, significantly higher than our estimate of 40,000 units. Its Grand Theft Auto Double Pack for PS2 showed decent sellthrough in October with 30,000 units sold in only a week, and competed with the individual titles for each game, which sold a
combined 120,000 units. The company also showed continued sales strength from its catalog games of Max Payne, Midnight Club, and Conflict: Desert Storm games. Take-Twos ASP for all units sold was $28.18, down from last years $45.05. This decline of 37.4% was greater than the industry average 12.9% decline, and reflects a considerable shift in the mix of the companys sales toward lower-priced catalog games. The ASP decline was expected, given that sales of Grand Theft Auto: Vice City comprised
86% of last Octobers sales for Take-Two.
THQ (THQIBuy)
Releases during October: 10/16 Tak and the Power of JuJu (PS2, GC, GBA), 10/21 Hot Wheels World Race (GC, PS2), 10/28 WWE Smackdown Here Comes The Pain (PS2), 10/29 SpongeBob SquarePants: Battle for Bikini Bottom (PS2, Xbox, GC).
October Retail Sales--$27 million
WMS Estimate--$35 million
THQs market share was flat at 7.7%, with retail sales increasing from $25 million to $27 million (compared with $18 million last October). THQs biggest seller was WWE Smackdown (PS2), selling 152,000 units compared with our estimate of 150,000 units. Tak and the Power of JuJu did relatively well with 101,000 units sold across all platforms. THQ again had sales that were broadbased, with 25 titles (eight Game Boy games) selling 10,000 or more units, compared with 21 titles (seven Game Boy games) that sold 10,000 or more units last month. We expect THQ to continue to benefit from strong Nintendo GBA SP sales over the
remainder of the year. THQs ASP for all units sold was $31.10, up from last years $29.42. This increase of 5.7% was significantly better than the industry average 12.9% decline, and reflects a favorable shift in the mix of THQs sales toward higher priced new releases. It is significant to note that the companys WWE titles generated over 35% of total sales at an ASP of $49.79, driving up the overall ASP.
CONCLUSION
October overall retail sales were lower than we expected, coming in at $355 million compared to our estimate of $375 million. We are encouraged that the overall decline was in large part attributable to a decline in ASPs, with unit sales off only 2% year-over year. We expect growth to resume at a strong double-digit pace in November and December and anticipate overall industry growth to end the year up 10% over 2002. We expect November sales to be led by strong releases of Activisions True Crime: Streets of LA (PS2, Xbox, GC), Electronic Arts Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA, PC) and Medal of Honor: Rising Sun (PS2, Xbox, GC), Take-Twos Manhunt (PS2) and Grand Theft Auto Double Pack (Xbox), Nintendos Mario Kart Double Dash (GC), Sonys SOCOM 2 (PS2), and Ubi Softs Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA, PC).
Electronic Arts continues to generate sales well in excess of last years levels and we expect it to maintain its market share in the last two months of 2003. THQs and Activision sales were lower than we expected, but both companies key releases for the
month performed within expectations. Acclaim, Midway, and Take-Two results were about in line with our expectations.
We believe that the market may react negatively to the NPD data, as we believe that the investment community will be disappointed with only 2% growth so far this year, and we anticipate some reaction to another negative growth month. However, we think that it is important for investors to recognize that last years explosive growth was attributable not only to console price cuts, but to the relatively rapid penetration of the Xbox and GameCube consoles, both of which debuted in late 2001. This year, we expect a crescendo in sales over the last two months of the year, as the substantial installed base of console owners makes their market presence felt.
October 2003 Market Share Rankings (Top 30 Companies)
T o ta l 355,355,391 $
Company Projected $'s Market Share
1 ELECTRONIC ARTS 86,218,660$ 24.3%
2 NINTENDO OF AMERICA 30,369,090$ 8.5%
3 THQ 27,413,360$ 7.7%
4 SONY 21,235,340$ 6.0%
5 ACTIVISION 19,147,470$ 5.4%
6 KONAMI OF AMERICA 18,539,030$ 5.2%
7 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE 15,742,340$ 4.4%
8 SEGA OF AMERICA 14,608,810$ 4.1%
9 NAMCO 14,030,460$ 3.9%
10 VIVENDI UNIVERSAL 13,046,710$ 3.7%
11 CAPCOM USA 11,012,100$ 3.1%
12 ATARI 10,966,550$ 3.1%
13 UBISOFT 10,222,980$ 2.9%
14 MICROSOFT 9,964,066$ 2.8%
15 LUCAS ARTS ENTERTAINMENT 9,860,034$ 2.8%
16 EIDOS INTERACTIVE 8,264,116 $2.3%
17 ACCLAIM ENTERTAINMENT 4,930,708$ 1.4%
18 MIDWAY 4,884,293 $1.4%
19 SQUARE ENIX USA 3,181,460$ 0.9%
20 TDK MEDIACTIVE 2,580,983 $ 0.7%
There is PLENTY of money to go around on ALL THREE consoles (and GBA!).
The console wars are over, and the PLAYERS won!!!
Freedom of choice is a wonderful, wonderful thing...
_/ C's Site o' Fun!
Just like Apple doesn't need to 'win' the platform wars to be 'viable', the same with these consoles. I like the diversity. Competition is good, et al.
...watching high school kids drawing swords over which console is the 'bestest'?
As far as rational thought goes the war is over, and was never really 'on', but from ages 12 to 18, they rage violently, and always will. Same deal with operating systems. Well, unless you're a Linux geek, in which case you will never step away from the fight.
-Cob
Granted, who am I to judge a game? I sure as hell couldn't develop anything let alone a FPS, but I've seen Halo over and over and over and over again, in one form or the other. First person shooter, varying levels of difficulty, pattern based enemies, open the doors, go to another area, shoot. Collect bullets. Shoot. Collect grenades. Open door. Shoot. Complete level. BORING, truly BORING. Cripes, this game is no better (as gameplay goes) that Blake Stone of many years ago. I'd rather play Escape From the Mindmaster on my Supercharged Atari 2600. Halo IS sorely overrated, but Xbox goons (stereotypical pot smoking, mullet haircutted Camaro drivers) need something to get excited about.